Report from “Black Sky” Infrastructure and Societal Resilience workshop

11 July 2017

“Our power grids are becoming ever more crucial. Cities will be paralyzed without electricity, and the lights going out will be the least of the consequences… everything else that urban life depends on is vulnerable to breakdowns, errors, or even intentional sabotage of the system.” – Prof Martin Rees

The report from the “Black Sky” Infrastructure and Societal Resilience workshop now available for download.

28 June: Seminar with Seth Baum from GCRI

On June 28, Executive Director Seth Baum from the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute will give a talk on the Institutes’ flagship integrated assessment project, with emphasis on risk from artificial intelligence (AI). Read more here
The seminar will take place from 4:00 pm – 5:30 pm atthe Alison Richard Building (ground floor), 7 West Road,  Cambridge, CB3 9DT United Kingdom

Catherine Rhodes in the Bulletin: “Make the Biological Weapons Convention Work”

CSER’s Catherine Rhodes provides an analysis of the importance of effective implementation of the Biological Weapons Convention in this week’s Bulletin of Atomic Scientists:

At their best, international treaties are not static objects. Rather, they are dynamic processes. They productively engage state and non-state actors. They stay relevant to, and actively shape, their “piece” of the world. Achieving a dynamic process is especially important for a treaty’s continued relevance when the treaty addresses or is affected by rapidly advancing science and technology.

Today, the world is witnessing numerous, high-profile developments in the life sciences—Crispr gene editing, gene drive technologies, low-cost sequencing and synthesis, and so forth. These developments often converge, in potentially powerful ways, with developments in other scientific and technological fields. Therefore, the key rules protecting the world against malign applications of developments in the life sciences should be particularly robust and dynamic. It is cause for alarm, then, that last November’s review conference for the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention “failed”—and that chances for progress within the convention before 2021 may stall completely in just a few months.”

Read the full article.

CSER Quarterly Report April 2017

Read our Quarterly Report from April 2017 here: CSER Quarterly Report April 2017.

Overview: We’ve had a busy Winter break and Lent term, in which we’ve:

  • Hosted our first conference, the Cambridge Conference on Catastrophic Risk (CCCR), which took place on December 12-14th at Clare College (http://cser.org/cccr2016/).
  • Organised a series of workshops on artificial intelligence risk scenarios, biorisks, geoengineering, and decision theory. These workshops have played important roles in both advancing our research projects, and in establishing strong links to relevant research and policy communities. The February AI and March ‘extreme biorisk’ workshop in particular allowed us to explore and identify research priorities in global-scale biorisk (natural and engineered).
  • Co-organised the Darwin “Extremes” lecture series (organised by CSER’s Julius Weitzdörfer) and a public lecture on climate change and existential risk (Professor Veerabhadran Ramanathan).
  • Been featured extensively in the media, including on the front page of Wired UK.
  • Published and submitted a number of papers as our research projects begin to bear fruit. This includes papers on geoengineering, on problems with current scientific structures, on biosecurity, on classifying global catastrophic risks, and several papers on decision theory.
  • Made a new appointment to our team: Haydn Belfield (Academic Project Manager).
  • Prepared to move office.
  • Advanced research on our main project, Managing Extreme Technological Risks, and given talks on our research at a range of conferences and events in and outside Cambridge.
  • Received a grant to expand our work on bio-risk and regulation, governance and responsible innovation in biotechnology.

CSER at Catastrophic And Existential Risk Colloquium

The UCLA’s Garrick Institute held its first colloquium on Catastrophic And Existential Risk from March 27-29, with the opening keynote being delivered by CSER’s Executive Director Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh, and a lecture being given by CSER’s Catherine Rhodes. Ó hÉigeartaigh gave an overview of recent global progress in the field of existential risk, and presented some of the challenges for traditional risk analysis posed by risks of global catastrophic magnitude. Dr Rhodes spoke on risk management in systems of international governance, in particular outlining challenges associate with the governance of biological weapons. CSER adviser Professor Jonathan Wiener also spoke on psychological, political and policy challenges associated with rare or unprecedented risks of global catastrophic scale.

The Colloquium represented a welcome coming-together of communities doing leading work on quantitative risk assessment across risks of different scales, leaders in global risk areas such as nuclear war and bioterrorism, and the growing community of academic and research specialists in global catastrophic and existential risk as a class of risk. Alongside CSER, Oxford’s Future of Humanity Institute, the Machine Intelligence Research Institute, the Foresight Institute, and the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute were also represented We thank the Garrick Institute for organising and leading on the colloquium. A report or edited volume may be produced on the basis of the talks and workshop sessions.

New Research Affiliates

The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk is happy to welcome six new Research Affiliates. This affiliation recognises the contribution they have made to the success of the Centre. We are proud to have them onboard!

Research Affiliates

Seth Baum
Research Affiliate

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Martina Kunz
Research Affiliate

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Ryan Carey
Research Affiliate

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William MacAskill
Research Affiliate

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Nikita Chiu
Research Affiliate

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Ellen Quigley
Research Affiliate

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Dr Simon Beard – a New Generation Thinker

On the 16th of March 2017 the AHRC and BBC Radio 3 announced the ten academics at the start of their career whose research will be made into radio and television programmes for the BBC – the New Generation Thinkers.

CSER is proud to announce that Dr Simon Beard, one of our philosophers, has been selected to participate among hundreds of applications from early career academics. The final 10 ‘New Generation Thinkers’ were selected following a four-month process involving a series of day-long workshops at the BBC in Salford and London.

Prof Andrew Thompson, Chief Executive of the AHRC, says:” This scheme is all about helping the next generation of academics to find new and wider audiences for the research by giving them a platform to share ideas and allowing them to have the space to challenge our thinking. More than ever we need the new insights and knowledge that come from arts and humanities researchers to help us to navigate through the complexities of our globalized world and address the moral and ethical challenges of today and tomorrow.”

Dr Simon Beard will explore the ethical challenge of ensuring the long-term future of humanity. He has written on topics including population ethics, disability rights, assisted dying, imprisoned mothers, equal marriage, global justice and the meaning of life. He is currently fascinated by the question of when does morality require us to act straight away and when are we justified in waiting until tomorrow.

Read the full press release from BBC

Envisioning and Addressing Adverse AI Outcomes

On the weekend of 24-26 February CSER executive director Seán Ó Heigeartaigh and researcher Shahar Avin participated and chaired sessions in the Origins workshop “Envisioning and Addressing Adverse AI Outcomes” hosted at Arizona State University. The workshop was organised by CSER co-founder Jaan Tallinn, Microsoft technical fellow and research managing director Eric Horvitz and Origins director and theoretical physicist Lawrence Krauss. 

At the workshop participants explored adverse AI outcomes in a red team/blue team adversarial format, exploring scenarios contributed by the participants, including several contributions from CSER (for which we thank inputs from FHI and the broader AI safety community). The workshop was also attended by researchers from related organisations exploring existential risk, including FHI, FLI and MIRI. 

There were numerous actionable take-home messages, including further exploration of several intersections between AI safety and cybersecurity, and scope for novel regulation policies in specific domains such as automated finance and healthcare.

Bloomberg covered the workshop – read the article here

Biological Extinction Workshop at the Vatican

Sir Partha Dasgupta, Chair of CSER, is one of the organisers of the Vatican workshop on Biological Extinction. He is presenting on the workshop’s ‘Goals and Objectives’ and the ‘Summary and Conclusions’. He is also speaking about Why We Are in the Sixth Extinction and What It Means to Humanity, while our co-founder Lord Martin Rees is speaking about ‘Extinction: What it Means to Us’.

This workshop follows a previous Vatican workshop and report, 2014’s Sustainable Humanity Sustainable Nature: Our Responsibility, with which Sir Partha and Lord Rees were heavily involved.

The Guardian article about the 2017 workshop (Biologists say half of all species could be extinct by end of century) quotes Sir Partha Dasgupta as saying:

“We need to unravel the processes that led to the ills we are now facing. That is why the Vatican symposia involve natural and social scientists, as well as scholars from the humanities. That the symposia are being held at the Papal Academy is also symbolic. It shows that the ancient hostility between science and the church, at least on the issue of preserving Earth’s services, has been quelled.”

The crucial point is to put the problem of biological extinctions in a social context, he said. “That gives us a far better opportunity of working out what we need to in the near future. We have to act quickly, however.”